PresidentialPositionsIssuesReceptionTimelineDocuments

Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.

Timeline 1929–1941

Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years (dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml). The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused: many actions and events share the same years.

Events

1929193019311932193319341935193619371938193919401941 National Prohibition (1920-01-17 – 1933-12-05): 18th Amendment in force; repeal a major 1932 issue. National ProhibitionThe Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great DepressionStock market crash (1929-10-24 – 1929-11-13): Black Thursday to the November low. Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust BowlSmoot–Hawley Tariff Act (1930-06-17): Raised US tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods; widely blamed for deepening the Depression. Banking panics of 1930–1933 (1930-11-01 – 1933-03-06): Successive waves of bank failures culminating in the March 1933 bank holiday. Banking panics of 1930–1933European war-debt crisis (1931-06-20 – 1934-06-15): Hoover moratorium (1931), Lausanne conference (1932), general default by 1934. European war-debt crisisJapanese invasion of Manchuria (1931-09-18 – 1932-02-18): Prompted the Stimson Doctrine of non-recognition. Bonus Army march and eviction (1932-05-01 – 1932-07-28): WWI veterans camped in Washington demanding early bonus payment; evicted by the Army under Hoover's orders. Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Townsend old-age pension movementShare Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender.

Gross domestic product (nominal, annual) — billions of dollars · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations

National ProhibitionThe Great DepressionStock market crashDust BowlSmoot–Hawley Tariff ActBanking panics of 1930–1933European war-debt crisisJapanese invasion of ManchuriaBonus Army march and evictionTownsend old-age pension movementShare Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassinationThe "Second New Deal" (1935)Schechter decision voids the NIRAItalian invasion of EthiopiaButler decision voids the AAADrought of 1936Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after)The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fightRecession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge"World War II (US participation) 1932 election1936 election 57.293.2129.3 1929193019311932193319341935193619371938193919401941 1929: 104.5561930: 92.161931: 77.3911932: 59.5221933: 57.1541934: 66.81935: 74.2411936: 84.831937: 93.0031938: 87.3521939: 93.4371940: 102.8991941: 129.309 2 1932: 2 action(s) • 1932-10-15 statute: Federal Home Loan Bank Act — banks operating — The Federal Home Loan Bank system to stop home foreclosures and finance new homes • 1932-12-19 message: Special message on intergovernmental debts — The 1931 German moratorium and standstill agreements stemmed European collapse and will be built upon 21 1933: 21 action(s) • 1933-01-13 veto: Veto of the Hawes-Cutting Philippine independence bill — Gradual Philippine independence — economic independence first, with duty-free sugar cut from 600,000 tons downward every year • 1933-03-10 message: Economy message: pledge to cover expenditures 'within a year' — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues • 1933-03-10 message: Message on economies in government — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent • 1933-03-16 message: Message on the Agricultural Adjustment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury • 1933-03-16 message: Message to Congress on the Agricultural Adjustment Act — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation • 1933-03-27 message: Message on consolidation of federal farm credit agencies — Consolidate the seven federal farm-mortgage agencies under a single purpose • 1933-03-27 message: Message on consolidation of federal farm credit agencies — Government assistance to keep home-owners and farm-owners from foreclosure • 1933-03-29 message: Message on federal supervision of investment securities — Require full public disclosure on all offerings of stocks and bonds • 1933-04-10 message: TVA message: 'national planning for a complete river watershed' — National economic planning on the model of the 1917 war mobilization • 1933-05-04 message: Message on emergency railroad legislation — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation • 1933-05-07 message: Second fireside chat: 'a partnership in planning' — National economic planning on the model of the 1917 war mobilization • 1933-05-07 message: Second fireside chat: 'partnership,' not control — Remove government from private enterprise except public works and natural resources … and 9 more10 1934: 10 action(s) • 1934-01-03 budget: FY1935 budget message with continuing deficit — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues • 1934-01-03 budget: Budget message FY1935: 'regular' versus 'emergency' expenditures — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent • 1934-01-30 statute: Gold Reserve Act (devaluation to $35) — A sound currency preserved at all hazards • 1934-02-09 message: Message recommending a Securities Exchange Commission — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates • 1934-03-02 message: Message requesting authority regarding foreign trade — Revise the tariff downward through reciprocal trade agreements • 1934-04-13 statute: Johnson Act (Foreign Securities Act) — No cancellation of the war debts — make payment possible by restoring trade • 1934-05-22 message: Message on silver policy / Silver Purchase Act — A sound currency preserved at all hazards • 1934-06-06 statute: Securities Exchange Act — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates • 1934-06-12 statute: Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act — Revise the tariff downward through reciprocal trade agreements • 1934-06-12 statute: Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act — A "competitive" tariff set through a scientific Tariff Commission, with anti-log-rolling rules and a public counsel 12 1935: 12 action(s) • 1935-03-12 message: Message recommending regulation of public utility holding companies — Eight-point federal utility program: publicity, Federal Power Commission control of holding companies, prudent-investment rate base • 1935-07-05 statute: National Labor Relations Act — An "economic declaration of rights" — the right to make a living and the right to safe savings • 1935-07-05 statute: National Labor Relations Act — A more equitable distribution of national income — higher reward to labor, lower to speculative capital • 1935-08-09 statute: Motor Carrier Act — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation • 1935-08-14 statute: Social Security Act — An "economic declaration of rights" — the right to make a living and the right to safe savings • 1935-08-14 statute: Social Security Act — "A new deal for the American people" — work and security through liberal, planned government action • 1935-08-23 statute: Banking Act of 1935 — Prevent another runaway credit expansion through government information, not government control of credit • 1935-08-26 statute: Securities Act, Securities Exchange Act, Banking Act, PUHCA — Government as a check on concentrated economic power — "individualism" redefined as equality of opportunity • 1935-08-26 statute: Public Utility Holding Company Act — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates • 1935-08-26 statute: Public Utility Holding Company Act and Federal Power Act (Title II) — Eight-point federal utility program: publicity, Federal Power Commission control of holding companies, prudent-investment rate base • 1935-08-30 statute: Revenue Act of 1935 ('wealth tax') — A more equitable distribution of national income — higher reward to labor, lower to speculative capital • 1935-08-30 statute: Revenue Act of 1935 — Raise revenue by graduated income, inheritance and profits taxes, not taxes on necessities 3 1936: 3 action(s) • 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury • 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (after Butler struck the AAA) — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation • 1936-09-25 treaty: Tripartite Monetary Agreement — Convene international monetary and economic conferences to stabilize currencies and restore trade 4 1937: 4 action(s) • 1937-01-14 message: Statement urging extension of the trade-agreements authority — Continue the reciprocal trade agreements to lower barriers against American exports • 1937-05-24 message: Message on minimum wages and maximum hours — Revive the NRA's principles 'by one device or another' (imputed; the President would not say) • 1937-06-01 budget: Spending cuts of 1937 and the recession — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues • 1937-11-16 message: Letter to the FTC on monopolistic practices raising living costs — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices 8 1938: 8 action(s) • 1938-03-11 appointment: Thurman Arnold heads the Antitrust Division — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices • 1938-04-29 message: Message on curbing monopolies — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices • 1938-04-29 message: Message on curbing monopolies — Take power from the 'economic royalists': the mandate of 1932 is to end economic tyranny • 1938-05-28 statute: Revenue Act of 1938 reduces the undistributed-profits surtax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found • 1938-06-15 veto: Veto of the farm-loan interest-rate extension — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking • 1938-06-16 statute: Temporary National Economic Committee created — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices • 1938-06-16 statute: Temporary National Economic Committee — Take power from the 'economic royalists': the mandate of 1932 is to end economic tyranny • 1938-12-13 executive_order: FHA insurance authorization raised — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking 1 1939: 1 action(s) • 1939-06-29 statute: Revenue Act of 1939 repeals the tax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found 1 1940: 1 action(s) • 1940-04-12 statute: Trade agreements program renewed — Continue the reciprocal trade agreements to lower barriers against American exports
62 presidential action(s) in 9 year(s) on this series — before/after
YearActionsAt year+1+2+4Δ 4y
1932 59.5257.1566.884.83 +25.31
1933 57.1566.874.2493 +35.85
1934 66.874.2484.8387.35 +20.55
1935 74.2484.839393.44 +19.2
1936 84.839387.35102.9 +18.07
1937 9387.3593.44129.31 +36.31
1938 87.3593.44102.9— —
1939 93.44102.9129.31— —
1940 102.9129.31—— —