PresidentialPositionsIssuesReceptionTimelineDocuments

Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.

Timeline 1936–1948

Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years (dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml). The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused: many actions and events share the same years.

Events

1936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948 The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great DepressionDust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust BowlTownsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender. World War II (US participation)

Gross domestic product (nominal, annual) — billions of dollars · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations

The Great DepressionDust BowlTownsend old-age pension movementItalian invasion of EthiopiaButler decision voids the AAADrought of 1936Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after)The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fightRecession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge"World War II (US participation) 1936 election 84.8179.6274.5 1936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948 1936: 84.831937: 93.0031938: 87.3521939: 93.4371940: 102.8991941: 129.3091942: 165.9521943: 203.0841944: 224.4471945: 228.0071946: 227.5351947: 249.6161948: 274.468 3 1936: 3 action(s) • 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury • 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (after Butler struck the AAA) — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation • 1936-09-25 treaty: Tripartite Monetary Agreement — Convene international monetary and economic conferences to stabilize currencies and restore trade 4 1937: 4 action(s) • 1937-01-14 message: Statement urging extension of the trade-agreements authority — Continue the reciprocal trade agreements to lower barriers against American exports • 1937-05-24 message: Message on minimum wages and maximum hours — Revive the NRA's principles 'by one device or another' (imputed; the President would not say) • 1937-06-01 budget: Spending cuts of 1937 and the recession — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues • 1937-11-16 message: Letter to the FTC on monopolistic practices raising living costs — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices 8 1938: 8 action(s) • 1938-03-11 appointment: Thurman Arnold heads the Antitrust Division — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices • 1938-04-29 message: Message on curbing monopolies — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices • 1938-04-29 message: Message on curbing monopolies — Take power from the 'economic royalists': the mandate of 1932 is to end economic tyranny • 1938-05-28 statute: Revenue Act of 1938 reduces the undistributed-profits surtax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found • 1938-06-15 veto: Veto of the farm-loan interest-rate extension — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking • 1938-06-16 statute: Temporary National Economic Committee created — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices • 1938-06-16 statute: Temporary National Economic Committee — Take power from the 'economic royalists': the mandate of 1932 is to end economic tyranny • 1938-12-13 executive_order: FHA insurance authorization raised — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking 1 1939: 1 action(s) • 1939-06-29 statute: Revenue Act of 1939 repeals the tax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found 1 1940: 1 action(s) • 1940-04-12 statute: Trade agreements program renewed — Continue the reciprocal trade agreements to lower barriers against American exports
17 presidential action(s) in 5 year(s) on this series — before/after
YearActionsAt year+1+2+4Δ 4y
1936 84.839387.35102.9 +18.07
1937 9387.3593.44129.31 +36.31
1938 87.3593.44102.9165.95 +78.6
1939 93.44102.9129.31203.08 +109.65
1940 102.9129.31165.95224.45 +121.55