Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.
Timeline 1935–1947
Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years
(dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml).
The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused:
many actions and events share the same years.
Events
1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947
The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great Depression Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust Bowl Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender. World War II (US participation)
Unemployment rate (NBER series, 1929–1942) — percent · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations · NBER Macrohistory series M0892; monthly, averaged to annual. Use with unemployment-rate (BLS, 1948–).
The Great Depression Dust Bowl Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination The "Second New Deal" (1935) Schechter decision voids the NIRA Italian invasion of Ethiopia Butler decision voids the AAA Drought of 1936 Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" World War II (US participation) 1936 election
2.4 10.4 18.4
1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947
1935: 17.581 1936: 14.238 1937: 12.162 1938: 18.419 1939: 16.347 1940: 14.024 1941: 6.002 1942: 2.382 16
1935: 16 action(s)
• 1935-01-17 message: Message to Congress on social security — Old-age insurance under state laws
• 1935-01-17 message: Message to Congress on social security — Unemployment insurance under state laws
• 1935-04-08 statute: Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — 'Employment for all surplus labor at all times' through self-liquidating public works (the Shearon letter, as Hoover read it)
• 1935-04-08 statute: Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — Public works spending is only a stopgap, not a cure for unemployment
• 1935-04-08 statute: Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — Expand self-sustaining public works and temporary federal work (forests, flood control, waterways), with advance planning
• 1935-07-05 statute: National Labor Relations Act — An "economic declaration of rights" — the right to make a living and the right to safe savings
• 1935-07-05 statute: National Labor Relations Act — A more equitable distribution of national income — higher reward to labor, lower to speculative capital
• 1935-08-14 statute: Social Security Act — An "economic declaration of rights" — the right to make a living and the right to safe savings
• 1935-08-14 statute: Social Security Act — "A new deal for the American people" — work and security through liberal, planned government action
• 1935-08-14 statute: Social Security Act, Titles I and II — Old-age insurance under state laws
• 1935-08-14 statute: Social Security Act — no health insurance title — Sickness insurance as a "minimum requirement" alongside old-age and unemployment insurance
• 1935-08-14 statute: Social Security Act, Title III — Unemployment insurance under state laws
… and 4 more 2
1936: 2 action(s)
• 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury
• 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (after Butler struck the AAA) — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation
7
1937: 7 action(s)
• 1937-02-10 message: Message on a program for the Great Plains — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1937-04-05 message: Message on making the CCC a permanent agency — Continue help for young people to obtain an education and a chance to use it
• 1937-04-12 litigation: Wagner Act upheld in NLRB v. Jones & Laughlin Steel — Guard the worker's right to organize and bargain collectively
• 1937-05-12 message: Message transmitting the water conservation and flood control report — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1937-05-24 message: Message on minimum wages and maximum hours — Revive the NRA's principles 'by one device or another' (imputed; the President would not say)
• 1937-06-01 budget: Spending cuts of 1937 and the recession — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues
• 1937-12-14 message: Letter recommending amendments to the Social Security Act — Build on the Social Security Act toward economic security for all
8
1938: 8 action(s)
• 1938-04-14 message: Message on stimulating recovery (spending program) — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes
• 1938-06-10 message: Letter refusing a commission to revise the NLRA — Guard the worker's right to organize and bargain collectively
• 1938-06-15 veto: Veto of the farm-loan interest-rate extension — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking
• 1938-06-21 statute: Emergency Relief Appropriation Act of 1938 — Provide useful work at prevailing wages for the needy unemployed rather than a dole
• 1938-06-25 statute: Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 — Shorter hours, higher wages, end child labor and sweatshops
• 1938-06-28 statute: Flood Control Act of 1938 — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1938-12-13 executive_order: FHA insurance authorization raised to $3 billion — Extend the federal housing program toward adequate housing for those in slums; encourage private building
• 1938-12-13 executive_order: FHA insurance authorization raised — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking
6
1939: 6 action(s)
• 1939-01-05 message: Message on the WPA — Provide useful work at prevailing wages for the needy unemployed rather than a dole
• 1939-01-16 message: Transmittal of the Social Security Board report — Build on the Social Security Act toward economic security for all
• 1939-04-03 statute: Reorganization Act of 1939 / Federal Security Agency — A long-range plan consolidating the federal government's scattered public-health and welfare agencies
• 1939-07-01 other: National Youth Administration continued — Continue help for young people to obtain an education and a chance to use it
• 1939-08-10 statute: Social Security Act Amendments of 1939 (financing changes) — Defense of the payroll-tax financing: the employer pays an equal share and the reserves are safe
• 1939-08-10 statute: Social Security Act Amendments of 1939 — Build on the Social Security Act toward economic security for all
39 presidential action(s) in 5 year(s) on this series — before/after
Year Actions At year +1 +2 +4 Δ 4y 1935 1935-01-17 message Message to Congress on social security — Old-age insurance under state laws Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-01-17 message Message to Congress on social security — Unemployment insurance under state laws Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-04-08 statute Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — 'Employment for all surplus labor at all times' through self-liquidating public works (the Shearon letter, as Hoover read it) Franklin D. Roosevelt partial 1935-04-08 statute Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — Public works spending is only a stopgap, not a cure for unemployment Franklin D. Roosevelt reversed 1935-04-08 statute Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — Expand self-sustaining public works and temporary federal work (forests, flood control, waterways), with advance planning Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-07-05 statute National Labor Relations Act — An "economic declaration of rights" — the right to make a living and the right to safe savings Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-07-05 statute National Labor Relations Act — A more equitable distribution of national income — higher reward to labor, lower to speculative capital Franklin D. Roosevelt partial 1935-08-14 statute Social Security Act — An "economic declaration of rights" — the right to make a living and the right to safe savings Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-08-14 statute Social Security Act — "A new deal for the American people" — work and security through liberal, planned government action Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-08-14 statute Social Security Act, Titles I and II — Old-age insurance under state laws Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-08-14 statute Social Security Act — no health insurance title — Sickness insurance as a "minimum requirement" alongside old-age and unemployment insurance Franklin D. Roosevelt abandoned 1935-08-14 statute Social Security Act, Title III — Unemployment insurance under state laws Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-08-23 statute Banking Act of 1935 — Prevent another runaway credit expansion through government information, not government control of credit Franklin D. Roosevelt superseded 1935-08-26 statute Securities Act, Securities Exchange Act, Banking Act, PUHCA — Government as a check on concentrated economic power — "individualism" redefined as equality of opportunity Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-08-30 statute Revenue Act of 1935 ('wealth tax') — A more equitable distribution of national income — higher reward to labor, lower to speculative capital Franklin D. Roosevelt partial 1935-08-30 statute Revenue Act of 1935 — Raise revenue by graduated income, inheritance and profits taxes, not taxes on necessities Franklin D. Roosevelt partial 17.58 14.24 12.16 16.35
-1.23 1936 14.24 12.16 18.42 14.02
-0.21 1937 12.16 18.42 16.35 6
-6.16 1938 18.42 16.35 14.02 2.38
-16.04 1939 16.35 14.02 6 —
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