Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.
Timeline 1931–1943
Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years
(dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml).
The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused:
many actions and events share the same years.
Events
1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943
National Prohibition (1920-01-17 – 1933-12-05): 18th Amendment in force; repeal a major 1932 issue. National Prohibition The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great Depression Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust Bowl Banking panics of 1930–1933 (1930-11-01 – 1933-03-06): Successive waves of bank failures culminating in the March 1933 bank holiday. Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis (1931-06-20 – 1934-06-15): Hoover moratorium (1931), Lausanne conference (1932), general default by 1934. European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1931-09-18 – 1932-02-18): Prompted the Stimson Doctrine of non-recognition. Bonus Army march and eviction (1932-05-01 – 1932-07-28): WWI veterans camped in Washington demanding early bonus payment; evicted by the Army under Hoover's orders. Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender. World War II (US participation)
Bank suspensions (all incorporated commercial banks) — banks per year · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations · Fed Banking and Monetary Statistics 1914-1941; annual count. Ends 1941.
National Prohibition The Great Depression Dust Bowl Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria Bonus Army march and eviction Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination The "Second New Deal" (1935) Schechter decision voids the NIRA Italian invasion of Ethiopia Butler decision voids the AAA Drought of 1936 Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" World War II (US participation) 1932 election 1936 election
8 1949.5 3891
1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943
1931: 2213 1932: 1416 1933: 3891 1934: 44 1935: 34 1936: 43 1937: 58 1938: 52 1939: 41 1940: 22 1941: 8 1
1932: 1 action(s)
• 1932-10-15 statute: Federal Home Loan Bank Act — banks operating — The Federal Home Loan Bank system to stop home foreclosures and finance new homes
9
1933: 9 action(s)
• 1933-03-27 message: Message on consolidation of federal farm credit agencies — Consolidate the seven federal farm-mortgage agencies under a single purpose
• 1933-03-27 message: Message on consolidation of federal farm credit agencies — Government assistance to keep home-owners and farm-owners from foreclosure
• 1933-03-29 message: Message on federal supervision of investment securities — Require full public disclosure on all offerings of stocks and bonds
• 1933-05-04 message: Message on emergency railroad legislation — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation
• 1933-05-27 statute: Securities Act disclaimer of federal approval — No implied government approval of foreign bond sales; officials will not try to move stock prices
• 1933-06-16 statute: Banking Act of 1933 (Glass-Steagall) — Separate investment banking from commercial banks; tighter national-bank supervision; faster payouts to depositors of closed banks
• 1933-06-16 statute: Emergency Railroad Transportation Act — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation
• 1933-10-15 executive_order: Deposit Liquidation Board — Separate investment banking from commercial banks; tighter national-bank supervision; faster payouts to depositors of closed banks
• 1933-10-20 other: Foreign Bondholders Protective Council — No implied government approval of foreign bond sales; officials will not try to move stock prices
2
1934: 2 action(s)
• 1934-02-09 message: Message recommending a Securities Exchange Commission — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates
• 1934-06-06 statute: Securities Exchange Act — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates
3
1935: 3 action(s)
• 1935-08-09 statute: Motor Carrier Act — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation
• 1935-08-23 statute: Banking Act of 1935 — Prevent another runaway credit expansion through government information, not government control of credit
• 1935-08-26 statute: Public Utility Holding Company Act — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates
2
1938: 2 action(s)
• 1938-06-15 veto: Veto of the farm-loan interest-rate extension — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking
• 1938-12-13 executive_order: FHA insurance authorization raised — Low interest rates, sounder home financing, better banking
17 presidential action(s) in 5 year(s) on this series — before/after
Year Actions At year +1 +2 +4 Δ 4y 1932 1416 3891 44 43
-1373 1933 3891 44 34 58
-3833 1934 44 34 43 52
+8 1935 34 43 58 41
+7 1938 52 41 22 —
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