Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.
Timeline 1934–1946
Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years
(dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml).
The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused:
many actions and events share the same years.
Events
1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946
The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great Depression Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust Bowl European war-debt crisis (1931-06-20 – 1934-06-15): Hoover moratorium (1931), Lausanne conference (1932), general default by 1934. Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender. World War II (US participation)
Federal outlays as percent of GDP — percent of GDP · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual last of published observations
The Great Depression Dust Bowl European war-debt crisis Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination The "Second New Deal" (1935) Schechter decision voids the NIRA Italian invasion of Ethiopia Butler decision voids the AAA Drought of 1936 Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" World War II (US participation) 1936 election
7.8 24.3 40.7
1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946
1934: 9.792 1935: 8.637 1936: 9.699 1937: 8.15 1938: 7.83 1939: 9.783 1940: 9.201 1941: 10.558 1942: 21.173 1943: 38.681 1944: 40.679 1945: 40.662 1946: 24.274 3
1934: 3 action(s)
• 1934-01-03 budget: FY1935 budget message with continuing deficit — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues
• 1934-01-03 budget: Budget message FY1935: 'regular' versus 'emergency' expenditures — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent
• 1934-03-27 statute: Vinson-Trammell Act — An adequate Army and Navy without a near-billion-dollar peacetime burden
1
1935: 1 action(s)
• 1935-05-22 veto: Veto of the Patman bonus bill (address to joint session) — No early payment of the veterans' bonus until the budget is balanced with a cash surplus
2
1936: 2 action(s)
• 1936-01-24 veto: Veto of the soldiers' bonus — No early payment of the veterans' bonus until the budget is balanced with a cash surplus
• 1936-01-27 statute: Adjusted Compensation Payment Act (over veto) — No early payment of the veterans' bonus until the budget is balanced with a cash surplus
3
1937: 3 action(s)
• 1937-01-07 budget: Budget message for fiscal 1938 — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes
• 1937-04-13 message: Message on eliminating unnecessary expenditures — Reduce the expenses of government as relief needs decline
• 1937-06-01 budget: Spending cuts of 1937 and the recession — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues
3
1938: 3 action(s)
• 1938-01-28 message: Message recommending increased defense appropriations — Keep the United States out of war: true neutrality, take the profits out of war, no political commitments
• 1938-04-14 message: Message on stimulating recovery (spending program) — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes
• 1938-04-14 message: Message on stimulating recovery — Reduce the expenses of government as relief needs decline
12 presidential action(s) in 5 year(s) on this series — before/after
Year Actions At year +1 +2 +4 Δ 4y 1934 9.79 8.64 9.7 7.83
-1.96 1935 8.64 9.7 8.15 9.78
+1.15 1936 9.7 8.15 7.83 9.2
-0.5 1937 8.15 7.83 9.78 10.56
+2.41 1938 7.83 9.78 9.2 21.17
+13.34