Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.
Timeline 1929–1941
Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years
(dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml).
The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused:
many actions and events share the same years.
Events
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
National Prohibition (1920-01-17 – 1933-12-05): 18th Amendment in force; repeal a major 1932 issue. National Prohibition The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great Depression Stock market crash (1929-10-24 – 1929-11-13): Black Thursday to the November low. Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust Bowl Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act (1930-06-17): Raised US tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods; widely blamed for deepening the Depression. Banking panics of 1930–1933 (1930-11-01 – 1933-03-06): Successive waves of bank failures culminating in the March 1933 bank holiday. Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis (1931-06-20 – 1934-06-15): Hoover moratorium (1931), Lausanne conference (1932), general default by 1934. European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1931-09-18 – 1932-02-18): Prompted the Stimson Doctrine of non-recognition. Bonus Army march and eviction (1932-05-01 – 1932-07-28): WWI veterans camped in Washington demanding early bonus payment; evicted by the Army under Hoover's orders. Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender.
Industrial production index (2017=100) — index · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations · Federal Reserve G.17; monthly, averaged to annual. 1919–.
National Prohibition The Great Depression Stock market crash Dust Bowl Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria Bonus Army march and eviction Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination The "Second New Deal" (1935) Schechter decision voids the NIRA Italian invasion of Ethiopia Butler decision voids the AAA Drought of 1936 Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" World War II (US participation) 1932 election 1936 election
4.1 7.6 11.1
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
1929: 7.612 1930: 6.324 1931: 5.237 1932: 4.088 1933: 4.843 1934: 5.249 1935: 6.079 1936: 7.174 1937: 7.858 1938: 6.213 1939: 7.625 1940: 8.807 1941: 11.123 11
1933: 11 action(s)
• 1933-03-29 message: Message on federal supervision of investment securities — Require full public disclosure on all offerings of stocks and bonds
• 1933-04-10 message: TVA message: 'national planning for a complete river watershed' — National economic planning on the model of the 1917 war mobilization
• 1933-05-04 message: Message on emergency railroad legislation — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation
• 1933-05-07 message: Second fireside chat: 'a partnership in planning' — National economic planning on the model of the 1917 war mobilization
• 1933-05-07 message: Second fireside chat: 'partnership,' not control — Remove government from private enterprise except public works and natural resources
• 1933-05-18 statute: Tennessee Valley Authority Act — Remove government from private enterprise except public works and natural resources
• 1933-06-16 statute: National Industrial Recovery Act — antitrust exemption — Strengthen and impartially enforce the antitrust laws
• 1933-06-16 statute: National Industrial Recovery Act — National economic planning on the model of the 1917 war mobilization
• 1933-06-16 statute: National Industrial Recovery Act — Industry leaders to organize cooperatively for the common good; government regulates only as a last resort
• 1933-06-16 statute: The Hundred Days legislation — "A new deal for the American people" — work and security through liberal, planned government action
• 1933-06-16 statute: Emergency Railroad Transportation Act — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation
2
1934: 2 action(s)
• 1934-02-09 message: Message recommending a Securities Exchange Commission — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates
• 1934-06-06 statute: Securities Exchange Act — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates
5
1935: 5 action(s)
• 1935-03-12 message: Message recommending regulation of public utility holding companies — Eight-point federal utility program: publicity, Federal Power Commission control of holding companies, prudent-investment rate base
• 1935-08-09 statute: Motor Carrier Act — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation
• 1935-08-26 statute: Securities Act, Securities Exchange Act, Banking Act, PUHCA — Government as a check on concentrated economic power — "individualism" redefined as equality of opportunity
• 1935-08-26 statute: Public Utility Holding Company Act — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates
• 1935-08-26 statute: Public Utility Holding Company Act and Federal Power Act (Title II) — Eight-point federal utility program: publicity, Federal Power Commission control of holding companies, prudent-investment rate base
2
1937: 2 action(s)
• 1937-05-24 message: Message on minimum wages and maximum hours — Revive the NRA's principles 'by one device or another' (imputed; the President would not say)
• 1937-11-16 message: Letter to the FTC on monopolistic practices raising living costs — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices
7
1938: 7 action(s)
• 1938-03-11 appointment: Thurman Arnold heads the Antitrust Division — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices
• 1938-04-14 message: Message on stimulating recovery (spending program) — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes
• 1938-04-29 message: Message on curbing monopolies — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices
• 1938-04-29 message: Message on curbing monopolies — Take power from the 'economic royalists': the mandate of 1932 is to end economic tyranny
• 1938-05-28 statute: Revenue Act of 1938 reduces the undistributed-profits surtax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found
• 1938-06-16 statute: Temporary National Economic Committee created — Vigorously enforce the antitrust laws and restore their efficacy against new corporate devices
• 1938-06-16 statute: Temporary National Economic Committee — Take power from the 'economic royalists': the mandate of 1932 is to end economic tyranny
1
1939: 1 action(s)
• 1939-06-29 statute: Revenue Act of 1939 repeals the tax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found
28 presidential action(s) in 6 year(s) on this series — before/after
Year Actions At year +1 +2 +4 Δ 4y 1933 4.84 5.25 6.08 7.86
+3.02 1934 5.25 6.08 7.17 6.21
+0.96 1935 1935-03-12 message Message recommending regulation of public utility holding companies — Eight-point federal utility program: publicity, Federal Power Commission control of holding companies, prudent-investment rate base Franklin D. Roosevelt partial 1935-08-09 statute Motor Carrier Act — Six-point railroad program — conditional federal support, receivership reform, ICC regulation of trucks and holding companies, consolidation Franklin D. Roosevelt partial 1935-08-26 statute Securities Act, Securities Exchange Act, Banking Act, PUHCA — Government as a check on concentrated economic power — "individualism" redefined as equality of opportunity Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-08-26 statute Public Utility Holding Company Act — Federal regulation of securities and commodity exchanges, interstate holding companies and interstate utility rates Franklin D. Roosevelt kept 1935-08-26 statute Public Utility Holding Company Act and Federal Power Act (Title II) — Eight-point federal utility program: publicity, Federal Power Commission control of holding companies, prudent-investment rate base Franklin D. Roosevelt partial 6.08 7.17 7.86 7.62
+1.55 1937 7.86 6.21 7.62 11.12
+3.27 1938 6.21 7.62 8.81 —
— 1939 7.62 8.81 11.12 —
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