PresidentialPositionsIssuesReceptionTimelineDocuments

Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.

Timeline 1929–1941

Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years (dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml). The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused: many actions and events share the same years.

Events

1929193019311932193319341935193619371938193919401941 National Prohibition (1920-01-17 – 1933-12-05): 18th Amendment in force; repeal a major 1932 issue. National ProhibitionThe Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great DepressionStock market crash (1929-10-24 – 1929-11-13): Black Thursday to the November low. Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust BowlSmoot–Hawley Tariff Act (1930-06-17): Raised US tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods; widely blamed for deepening the Depression. Banking panics of 1930–1933 (1930-11-01 – 1933-03-06): Successive waves of bank failures culminating in the March 1933 bank holiday. Banking panics of 1930–1933European war-debt crisis (1931-06-20 – 1934-06-15): Hoover moratorium (1931), Lausanne conference (1932), general default by 1934. European war-debt crisisJapanese invasion of Manchuria (1931-09-18 – 1932-02-18): Prompted the Stimson Doctrine of non-recognition. Bonus Army march and eviction (1932-05-01 – 1932-07-28): WWI veterans camped in Washington demanding early bonus payment; evicted by the Army under Hoover's orders. Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Townsend old-age pension movementShare Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender.

Federal surplus or deficit (fiscal year) — millions of dollars · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual last of published observations

National ProhibitionThe Great DepressionStock market crashDust BowlSmoot–Hawley Tariff ActBanking panics of 1930–1933European war-debt crisisJapanese invasion of ManchuriaBonus Army march and evictionTownsend old-age pension movementShare Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassinationThe "Second New Deal" (1935)Schechter decision voids the NIRAItalian invasion of EthiopiaButler decision voids the AAADrought of 1936Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after)The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fightRecession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge"World War II (US participation) 1932 election1936 election -4941-2101.5738 1929193019311932193319341935193619371938193919401941 1929: 7341930: 7381931: -4621932: -27351933: -26021934: -35861935: -28031936: -43041937: -21931938: -891939: -28461940: -29201941: -4941 7 1933: 7 action(s) • 1933-03-10 message: Economy message: pledge to cover expenditures 'within a year' — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues • 1933-03-10 message: Message on economies in government — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent • 1933-03-20 statute: Economy Act of 1933 — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent • 1933-03-20 statute: Economy Act of 1933, Section 17 — Full justice and generosity for veterans disabled by actual wartime service — silence on the bonus • 1933-06-16 statute: NIRA Title II public works ($3.3 billion) — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent • 1933-06-16 budget: NIRA public-works allotment for 32 warships — An adequate Army and Navy without a near-billion-dollar peacetime burden • 1933-06-16 statute: NIRA reemployment taxes — Raise revenue by graduated income, inheritance and profits taxes, not taxes on necessities 4 1934: 4 action(s) • 1934-01-03 budget: FY1935 budget message with continuing deficit — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues • 1934-01-03 budget: Budget message FY1935: 'regular' versus 'emergency' expenditures — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent • 1934-03-27 statute: Vinson-Trammell Act — An adequate Army and Navy without a near-billion-dollar peacetime burden • 1934-03-28 statute: Independent Offices Appropriation Act (over veto) — Full justice and generosity for veterans disabled by actual wartime service — silence on the bonus 2 1935: 2 action(s) • 1935-05-22 veto: Veto of the Patman bonus bill (address to joint session) — No early payment of the veterans' bonus until the budget is balanced with a cash surplus • 1935-08-30 statute: Revenue Act of 1935 — Raise revenue by graduated income, inheritance and profits taxes, not taxes on necessities 2 1936: 2 action(s) • 1936-01-24 veto: Veto of the soldiers' bonus — No early payment of the veterans' bonus until the budget is balanced with a cash surplus • 1936-01-27 statute: Adjusted Compensation Payment Act (over veto) — No early payment of the veterans' bonus until the budget is balanced with a cash surplus 6 1937: 6 action(s) • 1937-01-07 budget: Budget message for fiscal 1938 — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes • 1937-04-13 message: Message on eliminating unnecessary expenditures — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes • 1937-06-01 budget: Spending cuts of 1937 and the recession — Balance the federal budget annually within revenues • 1937-06-01 message: Message on tax evasion prevention — Taxes levied according to ability to pay; lower taxes for 99 percent, higher at the top • 1937-08-26 statute: Revenue Act of 1937 — Taxes levied according to ability to pay; lower taxes for 99 percent, higher at the top • 1937-10-19 message: Statement summarizing the 1938 budget — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes 4 1938: 4 action(s) • 1938-04-14 message: Message on stimulating recovery (spending program) — Balance the budget within a year or two out of rising national income, without new taxes • 1938-04-14 message: Message on stimulating recovery — Reduce the expenses of government as relief needs decline • 1938-05-28 statute: Revenue Act of 1938 reduces the undistributed-profits surtax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found • 1938-05-28 statute: Revenue Act of 1938 (became law without signature) — Taxes levied according to ability to pay; lower taxes for 99 percent, higher at the top 2 1939: 2 action(s) • 1939-06-29 statute: Revenue Act of 1939 repeals the tax — Defense of the undistributed-profits tax as a loophole-closer; correct imperfections if found • 1939-08-10 statute: Social Security Act Amendments of 1939 (financing changes) — Defense of the payroll-tax financing: the employer pays an equal share and the reserves are safe
27 presidential action(s) in 7 year(s) on this series — before/after
YearActionsAt year+1+2+4Δ 4y
1933 -2602-3586-2803-2193 +409
1934 -3586-2803-4304-89 +3497
1935 -2803-4304-2193-2846 -43
1936 -4304-2193-89-2920 +1384
1937 -2193-89-2846-4941 -2748
1938 -89-2846-2920— —
1939 -2846-2920-4941— —