Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.
Timeline 1929–1941
Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years
(dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml).
The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused:
many actions and events share the same years.
Events
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
National Prohibition (1920-01-17 – 1933-12-05): 18th Amendment in force; repeal a major 1932 issue. National Prohibition The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great Depression Stock market crash (1929-10-24 – 1929-11-13): Black Thursday to the November low. Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust Bowl Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act (1930-06-17): Raised US tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods; widely blamed for deepening the Depression. Banking panics of 1930–1933 (1930-11-01 – 1933-03-06): Successive waves of bank failures culminating in the March 1933 bank holiday. Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis (1931-06-20 – 1934-06-15): Hoover moratorium (1931), Lausanne conference (1932), general default by 1934. European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1931-09-18 – 1932-02-18): Prompted the Stimson Doctrine of non-recognition. Bonus Army march and eviction (1932-05-01 – 1932-07-28): WWI veterans camped in Washington demanding early bonus payment; evicted by the Army under Hoover's orders. Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender.
Index of prices received by farmers (1910–14=100) — index · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations · NBER Macrohistory M0460A; monthly, averaged to annual. 1910–1967.
National Prohibition The Great Depression Stock market crash Dust Bowl Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria Bonus Army march and eviction Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination The "Second New Deal" (1935) Schechter decision voids the NIRA Italian invasion of Ethiopia Butler decision voids the AAA Drought of 1936 Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" World War II (US participation) 1932 election 1936 election
65.1 106.3 147.5
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
1929: 147.5 1930: 124.917 1931: 86.833 1932: 65.083 1933: 70.333 1934: 89.583 1935: 108.917 1936: 114.083 1937: 122.5 1938: 96.917 1939: 95.167 1940: 100.333 1941: 123.5 11
1933: 11 action(s)
• 1933-01-13 veto: Veto of the Hawes-Cutting Philippine independence bill — Gradual Philippine independence — economic independence first, with duty-free sugar cut from 600,000 tons downward every year
• 1933-03-16 message: Message on the Agricultural Adjustment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury
• 1933-03-16 message: Message to Congress on the Agricultural Adjustment Act — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation
• 1933-03-27 message: Message on consolidation of federal farm credit agencies — Consolidate the seven federal farm-mortgage agencies under a single purpose
• 1933-03-27 message: Message on consolidation of federal farm credit agencies — Government assistance to keep home-owners and farm-owners from foreclosure
• 1933-03-27 executive_order: Executive Order 6084 — Farm Credit Administration — Reorganize the Department of Agriculture as the machinery for national agricultural planning
• 1933-05-12 statute: Agricultural Adjustment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury
• 1933-05-12 statute: Emergency Farm Mortgage Act (Title II, Agricultural Adjustment Act) — Government assistance to keep home-owners and farm-owners from foreclosure
• 1933-05-12 statute: Agricultural Adjustment Administration within USDA — Reorganize the Department of Agriculture as the machinery for national agricultural planning
• 1933-05-12 statute: Thomas Amendment (Title III, Agricultural Adjustment Act) — Restore commodity prices toward their former dollar value rather than write down all debts
• 1933-05-12 statute: Agricultural Adjustment Act — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation
1
1935: 1 action(s)
• 1935-04-27 statute: Soil Conservation Act / Soil Conservation Service — A national policy of planned land use — economic soil survey and retirement of marginal farmland
4
1936: 4 action(s)
• 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury
• 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act — A national policy of planned land use — economic soil survey and retirement of marginal farmland
• 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (after Butler struck the AAA) — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation
• 1936-05-20 statute: Rural Electrification Act operations (1936-) — Cheaper electricity and rural electrification by the 'yardstick' method
6
1937: 6 action(s)
• 1937-02-06 message: Message on farm tenancy — A definite reduction of farm tenancy; refinance farm debt at low rates over long terms
• 1937-02-10 message: Message on a program for the Great Plains — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1937-02-18 message: Message on crop insurance — Crop insurance and a stable food supply
• 1937-05-12 message: Message transmitting the water conservation and flood control report — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1937-07-22 statute: Bankhead-Jones Farm Tenant Act — A definite reduction of farm tenancy; refinance farm debt at low rates over long terms
• 1937-09-01 other: Farm Security Administration created — A definite reduction of farm tenancy; refinance farm debt at low rates over long terms
4
1938: 4 action(s)
• 1938-02-16 statute: Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (AAA 1938, Title V) — Crop insurance and a stable food supply
• 1938-02-16 statute: Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 — Continue soil conservation and domestic allotment payments; end ruinous surpluses; commodity loans on seasonal surpluses
• 1938-02-16 statute: AAA 1938 provisions — Continue soil conservation and domestic allotment payments; end ruinous surpluses; commodity loans on seasonal surpluses
• 1938-06-28 statute: Flood Control Act of 1938 — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
1
1940: 1 action(s)
• 1940-01-15 message: Message on the Tennessee Valley Authority — Cheaper electricity and rural electrification by the 'yardstick' method
27 presidential action(s) in 6 year(s) on this series — before/after
Year Actions At year +1 +2 +4 Δ 4y 1933 70.33 89.58 108.92 122.5
+52.17 1935 108.92 114.08 122.5 95.17
-13.75 1936 114.08 122.5 96.92 100.33
-13.75 1937 122.5 96.92 95.17 123.5
+1 1938 96.92 95.17 100.33 —
— 1940 100.33 123.5 — —
—