PresidentialPositionsIssuesReceptionTimelineDocuments

Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.

Timeline 1936–1948

Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years (dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml). The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused: many actions and events share the same years.

Events

1936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948 The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great DepressionDust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust BowlTownsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition. World War II (US participation) (1941-12-08 – 1945-09-02): Pearl Harbor declaration to the Japanese surrender. World War II (US participation)

Index of prices received by farmers (1910–14=100) — index · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations · NBER Macrohistory M0460A; monthly, averaged to annual. 1910–1967.

The Great DepressionDust BowlTownsend old-age pension movementItalian invasion of EthiopiaButler decision voids the AAADrought of 1936Spanish Civil WarSit-down strikes (GM Flint and after)The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fightRecession of 1937–381938 midterm elections and the failed "purge"World War II (US participation) 1936 election 95.2191286.8 1936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948 1936: 114.0831937: 122.51938: 96.9171939: 95.1671940: 100.3331941: 123.51942: 158.751943: 193.251944: 197.1671945: 206.751946: 235.8331947: 275.9171948: 286.833 4 1936: 4 action(s) • 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act — Raise staple farm prices by a tariff-equivalent benefit plus voluntary production control, at no cost to the Treasury • 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act — A national policy of planned land use — economic soil survey and retirement of marginal farmland • 1936-03-01 statute: Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (after Butler struck the AAA) — Restore purchasing power to the farming half of the nation • 1936-05-20 statute: Rural Electrification Act operations (1936-) — Cheaper electricity and rural electrification by the 'yardstick' method 6 1937: 6 action(s) • 1937-02-06 message: Message on farm tenancy — A definite reduction of farm tenancy; refinance farm debt at low rates over long terms • 1937-02-10 message: Message on a program for the Great Plains — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy • 1937-02-18 message: Message on crop insurance — Crop insurance and a stable food supply • 1937-05-12 message: Message transmitting the water conservation and flood control report — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy • 1937-07-22 statute: Bankhead-Jones Farm Tenant Act — A definite reduction of farm tenancy; refinance farm debt at low rates over long terms • 1937-09-01 other: Farm Security Administration created — A definite reduction of farm tenancy; refinance farm debt at low rates over long terms 4 1938: 4 action(s) • 1938-02-16 statute: Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (AAA 1938, Title V) — Crop insurance and a stable food supply • 1938-02-16 statute: Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 — Continue soil conservation and domestic allotment payments; end ruinous surpluses; commodity loans on seasonal surpluses • 1938-02-16 statute: AAA 1938 provisions — Continue soil conservation and domestic allotment payments; end ruinous surpluses; commodity loans on seasonal surpluses • 1938-06-28 statute: Flood Control Act of 1938 — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy 1 1940: 1 action(s) • 1940-01-15 message: Message on the Tennessee Valley Authority — Cheaper electricity and rural electrification by the 'yardstick' method
15 presidential action(s) in 4 year(s) on this series — before/after
YearActionsAt year+1+2+4Δ 4y
1936 114.08122.596.92100.33 -13.75
1937 122.596.9295.17123.5 +1
1938 96.9295.17100.33158.75 +61.83
1940 100.33123.5158.75197.17 +96.83