Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.
Timeline 1928–1940
Yearly indicator series (each archived from its publisher), an event lane (red = war, amber = economic, grey = political), election years
(dotted), and presidential actions — follow-through mechanisms — placed on the indicators their position's category targets (data/schema/indicator_links.yaml).
The before/after table shows the indicator in the action's year and 1, 2 and 4 years later. That is a reading of what happened next, not a measurement of what the action caused:
many actions and events share the same years.
Events
1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940
National Prohibition (1920-01-17 – 1933-12-05): 18th Amendment in force; repeal a major 1932 issue. National Prohibition The Great Depression (1929-10-24 – 1941-12-07): Economic collapse following the 1929 crash; ~25% unemployment by 1933. The Great Depression Stock market crash (1929-10-24 – 1929-11-13): Black Thursday to the November low. Dust Bowl (1930-01-01 – 1940-12-31): Prolonged drought and soil erosion across the Plains. Dust Bowl Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act (1930-06-17): Raised US tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods; widely blamed for deepening the Depression. Banking panics of 1930–1933 (1930-11-01 – 1933-03-06): Successive waves of bank failures culminating in the March 1933 bank holiday. Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis (1931-06-20 – 1934-06-15): Hoover moratorium (1931), Lausanne conference (1932), general default by 1934. European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1931-09-18 – 1932-02-18): Prompted the Stimson Doctrine of non-recognition. Bonus Army march and eviction (1932-05-01 – 1932-07-28): WWI veterans camped in Washington demanding early bonus payment; evicted by the Army under Hoover's orders. Townsend old-age pension movement (1933-09-30 – 1936-11-03): Dr. Francis Townsend's $200-a-month pension plan built about two million club members by 1936, pushed Congress toward Social Security, and fed the Union Party. Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination (1934-02-23 – 1935-09-10): Long's Share Our Wealth clubs (7.5 million claimed members) threatened a 1936 third-party run until he was shot in Baton Rouge on Sept. 8, 1935; his following passed to Gerald L. K. Smith and the Union Party. The "Second New Deal" (1935) (1935-04-08 – 1935-08-30): Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA), Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Banking Act, Public Utility Holding Company Act and the Wealth Tax Act, all enacted April–August 1935. Schechter decision voids the NIRA (1935-05-27): The Supreme Court unanimously struck down the National Industrial Recovery Act's code system; the NRA and its wage-hour codes lapsed. Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935-10-03 – 1936-05-09): Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia; League sanctions failed; the U.S. applied the 1935 Neutrality Act arms embargo. Butler decision voids the AAA (1936-01-06): United States v. Butler (6–3) held the Agricultural Adjustment Act's processing tax and production-control scheme unconstitutional; Congress substituted the Soil Conservation and Domestic Allotment Act (Feb. 29, 1936). Drought of 1936 (1936-06-01 – 1936-09-30): The hottest, driest summer on record across the Plains and Midwest; Roosevelt toured the drought states and called a Des Moines drought conference (Sept. 3) that Landon attended. Spanish Civil War (1936-07-17 – 1939-04-01): Nationalist rising against the Spanish Republic; Germany and Italy aided Franco; the U.S. extended its arms embargo to the conflict in January 1937. Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) (1936-12-30 – 1937-03-12): The UAW's Flint sit-down forced General Motors to recognize the union (Feb. 11, 1937); a wave of sit-downs followed, and U.S. Steel signed with the SWOC without a strike. The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight (1937-02-05 – 1937-07-22): Roosevelt's bill to add up to six Supreme Court justices; defeated in the Senate after the Court upheld the Wagner Act and Social Security and Justice Van Devanter retired. Recession of 1937–38 (1937-05-01 – 1938-06-01): Sharp contraction after federal spending cuts and Fed tightening. Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" (1938-06-24 – 1938-11-08): Roosevelt campaigned against conservative Democrats in primaries and lost; Republicans gained 81 House and 8 Senate seats, cementing the conservative coalition.
Index of construction contracts awarded (cost-adjusted) — index · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · annual mean of published observations · NBER Macrohistory M02108 (Engineering News-Record); monthly, averaged to annual. 1914–1943. Public works show up here.
National Prohibition The Great Depression Stock market crash Dust Bowl Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act Banking panics of 1930–1933 European war-debt crisis Japanese invasion of Manchuria Bonus Army march and eviction Townsend old-age pension movement Share Our Wealth movement and Huey Long's assassination The "Second New Deal" (1935) Schechter decision voids the NIRA Italian invasion of Ethiopia Butler decision voids the AAA Drought of 1936 Spanish Civil War Sit-down strikes (GM Flint and after) The court-reorganization ("court-packing") fight Recession of 1937–38 1938 midterm elections and the failed "purge" 1932 election 1936 election
101.8 208.9 316.1
1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940
1928: 283.333 1929: 316.083 1930: 261.333 1931: 222.417 1932: 127.167 1933: 101.75 1934: 117.083 1935: 133.5 1936: 185.333 1937: 171.833 1938: 196.5 1939: 210.583 1940: 268.833 1
1932: 1 action(s)
• 1932-10-15 statute: Federal Home Loan Bank Act — banks operating — The Federal Home Loan Bank system to stop home foreclosures and finance new homes
7
1933: 7 action(s)
• 1933-03-21 message: Message proposing the Civilian Conservation Corps — Employ a million men reforesting marginal and abandoned land
• 1933-04-10 message: Message suggesting the Tennessee Valley Authority — Public development of hydro-electric power on the St. Lawrence model, with national control of interstate transmission
• 1933-05-17 message: NIRA message: $3.3 billion public works — Public works spending is only a stopgap, not a cure for unemployment
• 1933-05-18 statute: Tennessee Valley Authority Act — Public development of hydro-electric power on the St. Lawrence model, with national control of interstate transmission
• 1933-06-16 statute: NIRA Title II public works ($3.3 billion) — Cut the cost of the federal government by at least 25 percent
• 1933-06-16 statute: NIRA Title II — Public Works Administration — Expand self-sustaining public works and temporary federal work (forests, flood control, waterways), with advance planning
• 1933-09-30 budget: PWA allotment for Bonneville Dam — The next federal hydro-electric development will be on the Columbia River
1
1934: 1 action(s)
• 1934-06-27 statute: National Housing Act (FHA) — Slum clearance and modern housing for the urban poor as a "human necessity" among public works
3
1935: 3 action(s)
• 1935-04-08 statute: Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — 'Employment for all surplus labor at all times' through self-liquidating public works (the Shearon letter, as Hoover read it)
• 1935-04-08 statute: Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — Public works spending is only a stopgap, not a cure for unemployment
• 1935-04-08 statute: Emergency Relief Appropriation Act (WPA) — Expand self-sustaining public works and temporary federal work (forests, flood control, waterways), with advance planning
4
1937: 4 action(s)
• 1937-02-10 message: Message on a program for the Great Plains — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1937-05-12 message: Message transmitting the water conservation and flood control report — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1937-09-01 statute: United States Housing Act of 1937 (Wagner-Steagall) — Extend the federal housing program toward adequate housing for those in slums; encourage private building
• 1937-11-27 message: Message on private construction of housing — Extend the federal housing program toward adequate housing for those in slums; encourage private building
2
1938: 2 action(s)
• 1938-06-28 statute: Flood Control Act of 1938 — Continue drought and flood aid and a nation-wide flood-control and water-conservation policy
• 1938-12-13 executive_order: FHA insurance authorization raised to $3 billion — Extend the federal housing program toward adequate housing for those in slums; encourage private building
18 presidential action(s) in 6 year(s) on this series — before/after
Year Actions At year +1 +2 +4 Δ 4y 1932 127.17 101.75 117.08 185.33
+58.17 1933 101.75 117.08 133.5 171.83
+70.08 1934 117.08 133.5 185.33 196.5
+79.42 1935 133.5 185.33 171.83 210.58
+77.08 1937 171.83 196.5 210.58 —
— 1938 196.5 210.58 268.83 —
—