PresidentialPositionsIssuesReceptionTimelineDocuments

Work in progress — cycles are added one at a time. Every quote is machine-verified against an archived source; follow the links to read it.

1936 › Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) › Who deserves credit for recovery (defense of record)

Recovery came from raising purchasing power at the bottom, not 'trickle down'

defense_of_recordvague_gesturecandidate_directevidence A Economy & Fiscal Policy similar solutions · similar reasoning

Solution

Claim credit for recovery and keep the policy of tackling 'the problems of those who were at the bottom of the economic pyramid.'

Rationale

The 'trickle down' theory 'was that there was always too little left to trickle down more than halfway.'

Statements (2)

1936-10-14 · Chicago · generalcandidate_direct ✓ verified
Some people say that all this recovery has just happened. But in a complicated modern world recoveries from depressions do not just happen.
Source: Address at Chicago, Ill. (1936-10-14)
1936-10-16 · Cleveland, Ohio · generalcandidate_direct ✓ verified
Our theory for the last three and a half years has been just the opposite. We have acted on the conviction that the way to bring about recovery was to tackle the problems of those who were at the bottom of the economic pyramid, to increase earnings and income, and through them the purchasing power of everybody.
Source: Address at Cleveland, Ohio (1936-10-16)

Follow-through

not_applicable

A theory of the record, not a pledge. The 1937-38 recession -- a one-third fall in industrial production after federal spending was cut and the payroll tax began -- became the test case both sides cited; see 1936-fdr-balance-budget-from-rising-income.

Reception (2)

opinion_pollaccuratesalience high Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion, as summarized by Ruth Finney, Washington Daily News 1936-11-02

All major polls but the Digest predicted Roosevelt; Gallup gave Landon only Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire.

The American Institute of Public Opinion poll conducted by George Gallup gives Landon only three sure states. Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire
Source: New Deal policies face close scrutiny in next four years (Washington Daily News, Nov. 2, 1936, p. 2)
historiographyaccuratesalience high Wikipedia, 'The Literary Digest' (summarizing Squire 1988 and Lusinchi 2016) 1936-11-03

The Digest's error -- 39 points on the margin -- came from sampling and non-response bias; Gallup's 50,000-person quota sample was within 1.4 points.

George Gallup 's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result to within 1.4%, using a much smaller sample size of just 50,000.
Source: The Literary Digest - Wikipedia

1936-fdr-recovery-from-the-bottom-up · created by claude-fable-5-1 · review: unreviewed